A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
