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An individual made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions.

Market Movement in Forecasts

Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January surged in the hours before former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.

A particular user, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K.

The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

However the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in betting activity just before the public announcement was made.

"This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate.

A small number of other traders also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Political Attention Intensifies

Elected officials are starting to take note.

A bill introduced on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager.

Industry Context

Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs.

This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the Trump presidency.

Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."